Belmar: availability is the binding constraint.
Belmar's single-family market reads supply-constrained (Scarcity 94/100); availability is the constraint to monitor, with liquidity not separately scored this edition.
Belmar research starts with the mid-2026 release; we'll add more towns and notes as we cover them.
Scores are public, human-reviewed town signals on a 0–100 scale. For where a specific home sits against them, send us the address.
Belmar's single-family market reads supply-constrained (Scarcity 94/100); availability is the constraint to monitor, with liquidity not separately scored this edition.
- 01Scarcity reads 94/100 — active listings are low relative to the town's housing base, keeping structural pressure under prices.
- 02Active single-family inventory stands at 5 listings as of 2026-07-14.
- Whether active inventory begins to expand, which would be the first sign of a supply-constrained market loosening.
- Whether price reductions accelerate from today's 0% of active listings — a rising share would signal the asking-vs-sold gap closing through softer asks rather than higher sales.
- Whether days-on-market lengthen from the current fast pace, which typically precedes any change in pricing power.
Based on 134 trailing-12-month single-family sales (116 with recorded size for $/sqft), recent data vintage. Town-level aggregate, so conviction is capped below 'High'.
Belmar remains a scarcity-driven, fast-clearing market with resilient single-family pricing; the principal near-term question is whether scarcity holds and demand stays intact as financing costs persist.
What our research found this period.
Briarwood Research's current read is that Belmar is a market in transition whose pricing drivers we are still resolving. The findings below are the evidence-backed conclusions behind that view; the risks and watch-items that would change it follow later in the report.
- Belmar's price appreciation is broad-based — it reflects rising value per square foot, not simply larger homes changing hands.
- A small luxury tail carries a disproportionate share of Belmar's dollar volume.
- 01High confidenceSurprise
Belmar's price appreciation is broad-based — it reflects rising value per square foot, not simply larger homes changing hands.
Evidence- Median sale price is +3.0% year-over-year while median $/sqft is +7.2%, and median home size -12.8%.
- Computed over 116 trailing-12-month single-family sales with recorded size.
Why it matters. Broad-based appreciation is more durable than a mix effect: it indicates the market is genuinely re-rating, not just trading a richer set of homes.
- 02Moderate confidenceSurprise
A small luxury tail carries a disproportionate share of Belmar's dollar volume.
Evidence- The top 10% of sales (above ~$2,625,000) account for about 23% of total dollar volume.
- That decile is, by definition, 10% of transactions — so its dollar weight is disproportionate.
Why it matters. The median understates how much of the market's value sits in the high end; luxury demand has outsized influence on aggregate pricing and is a distinct risk vector.
Liquidity & supply
As of 2026-07-14, Belmar carries 5 active single-family listings — too few to quote a reliable on-market days-on-market. Homes that closed recently sold in a median of about 48 days (18 recent closings), so the market is still clearing quickly even with the shelf this thin.
Price reductions are running at 0% of active listings; a low share is consistent with sellers holding firm rather than chasing the market down.
Months-of-supply and absorption cannot be computed from the current feed: the active snapshot carries no recent closed-sale pace, so we report it as not available rather than derive it from an incomplete denominator.
New-listing flow and expired/withdrawn counts are not captured in the current active feed; those liquidity signals are flagged as not yet available.
| Active-market metric | Reading |
|---|---|
| Active listings | 5 |
| Median days on market | not available |
| Median days to sell (recent closings) | 48 days |
| Median asking price | not available |
| Median asking $/sqft | not available |
| Price-cut share | 0% |
| Stale (90+ day) share | 9% |
| Months of supply | not available |
The history behind the read.
Scarcity Index · index_score · 2 observed points
Scarcity Index moved -1.28
From 2026-06-12 to 2026-07-11, observed value changed from 91.02 to 89.74.
Active listings · count · 11 observed points
Active listings moved -4
From 2026-06-22 to 2026-07-14, observed value changed from 9 to 5.
| Metric | Prior | Current | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Affordability Stress Index | 71.1 | 68.2 | ↓-2.9 |
| Liquidity Index | 84 | 89.5 | ↑5.5 |
| Scarcity Index | 91 | 89.7 | ↓-1.3 |
Liquidity Index moved +5.54
Liquidity Index had the largest current-vs-prior move.
The read in plain English.
- 01
Scarcity reads 94/100 — active listings are low relative to the town's housing base, keeping structural pressure under prices.
- 02
Active single-family inventory stands at 5 listings as of 2026-07-14.
Availability, not headline affordability, is the binding constraint in Belmar. Use the town baseline to frame the ask, then test the specific home — condition, block, and comp fit decide where a given listing should land against it.
Want a read on a specific Belmar property?
Send the address and we'll tell you how it compares with the rest of the town — a direct analysis from our research team, not an automated score.
- Observed facts — closed-sale prices, dates, and property attributes from Briarwood's proprietary Belmar transaction record (337 single-family sales), and the curated active-market aggregate as of 2026-07-14.
- Derived statistics — medians, distributions, and $/sqft, computed deterministically from those facts (no estimation, no smoothing).
- Proprietary signals — the Liquidity, Scarcity, and Affordability Stress indices, Briarwood computations over the same evidence rather than third-party scores.
- Research interpretation — the Briarwood Research findings, market thesis, competing hypotheses, and conviction; labelled throughout as our reading of the evidence, not fact.
- Forward-looking monitoring — the watch-items and risks, framed as what Briarwood Research will track as data accumulates, not as predictions.
- No external institutional research is cited as proof of any local fact; external macro/framework context, where used, is confined to framing and never to town-specific claims.
Evidence Notes
- Briarwood SOLD comp record for Belmar: 337 sales through 2026-06-24.
- Trailing-12-month window 2025-06-24 → 2026-06-24: 134 sales (prior year 85).
- $/sqft computed over 116 eligibility-screened comps (nominal-deed and outlier rows excluded).
- Active-market read from the approved curated aggregate, as of 2026-07-14.
Limitations
- This public report is a town and segment baseline, not a property-specific recommendation.
- The current (partial) quarter is excluded from the price trend; medians cover complete quarters only.
- Aggregate medians blend block, condition, and size; a specific home can sit far from the town median.
- Active inventory is thin (5 listings as of 2026-07-14); on-market reads carry wide error.
- The Affordability Stress reading rests on an explicit mortgage-rate assumption and town median household income; it frames financing stretch, not a forecast.
- Index movements are measured against the prior published release; the public baseline is still building (few observed points), so treat the deltas as directional, not trend.
- Rental-yield offset is not quantified: the substrate carries no reliable rental dataset for this town, so any rent-vs-own or yield read would be fabricated. Scarcity here is read from for-sale supply and absorption, not from a rent-side signal.
Research disclaimer. Briarwood Research is independent market analysis prepared for informational purposes. It draws on public records (NJ SR1A deed transfers and MOD-IV assessments), third-party data (ATTOM), and Briarwood's own valuation models; figures are estimates, not a licensed appraisal, and nothing here is an offer, a solicitation, or investment advice. Confirm property-level facts before acting on any decision.