In Belmar, the Small Houses Might Be the Big Opportunity
A descriptive read of recorded Belmar single-family sales: the smallest homes traded at a 60.6% price-per-square-foot premium to the largest over the 2024-06-22 to 2026-06-22 window.
In Belmar, the smallest single-family homes screen favorably on a price-per-square-foot basis and may indicate optionality — buyers appear to pay a land-and-location floor at the small end, and the spread up to larger homes is worth watching as expansion headroom.
Belmar research starts with the mid-2026 release; we'll add more towns and notes as we cover them.
Small homes carry the premium.
In Belmar, the smallest single-family homes traded at a +60.6% price-per-square-foot premium relative to the largest — a descriptive read of recorded sales, not a forecast.
Briarwood SOLD comps · Belmar single-family · trailing 2y through 2026-06-22
| Living-area band | n | Median $/sqft | Median price | Median sqft |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Small (<1,200 sqft) | 47 | $922 | $730,000 | 832 |
| Mid (1,200-1,999 sqft) | 62 | $648 | $950,000 | 1,563 |
| Large (2,000+ sqft) | 61 | $574 | $1,525,000 | 2,624 |
Published findings.
Cohort median price (730,000) runs 36.5% below the All single-family (Belmar) baseline (1,150,000).
- Small homes (<1,200 sqft) median price 730000 (n=47)
- All single-family (Belmar) median price 1150000
Cohort median ppsf (922) runs 41.3% above the All single-family (Belmar) baseline (653).
- Small homes (<1,200 sqft) median ppsf 922 (n=47)
- All single-family (Belmar) median ppsf 653
In the available sample, the All single-family (Belmar) cohort (n=211) shows a median $653/sqft on a median price of $1,150,000.
- Median price is 1150000.0 across 211 cohort records. (n=211)
- Median ppsf is 652.6604 across 170 cohort records. (n=170)
In the available sample, the Small homes (<1,200 sqft) cohort (n=47) shows a median $922/sqft on a median price of $730,000.
- Median price is 730000.0 across 47 cohort records. (n=47)
- Median ppsf is 922.4891 across 47 cohort records. (n=47)
In the available sample, the Larger finished homes (2,000+ sqft) cohort (n=61) shows a median $574/sqft on a median price of $1,525,000.
- Median price is 1525000.0 across 61 cohort records. (n=61)
- Median ppsf is 574.1483 across 61 cohort records. (n=61)
Reading this into a decision.
- Bidding
- The smallest homes (under 1,200 sqft) traded at the highest price per foot — a median $922/sqft, ~60% above the largest homes — so a low sticker price isn't 'cheap' on a per-foot basis. Compare a small listing on $/sqft against this band, not on headline price.
- Selling
- Recorded sales show buyers paying a per-foot premium at the small end (median $922/sqft vs $574 for 2,000+ sqft homes). If you own a smaller Belmar home, price against the small-home band's $/sqft, not the townwide median price.
- Renovating / Redeveloping
- The small-to-large $/sqft spread is an expansion headroom observation, not underwriting — this note explicitly does not model construction cost, zoning, or FAR. Treat the ~$444 implied capture per added square foot as a hypothesis to pressure-test on a specific lot, not a return.
- Underwriting
- Read the small-end premium as descriptive of recorded sales, not a forecast: it's split by living area only, with no control for condition, year built, or micro-location. Whether it's redevelopment optionality or just a land-and-location floor is an open question here — keep it conservative.
Open questions.
These are surfaced for transparency, not asserted. They need more data or calibration before Briarwood would publish them as findings.
- Still calibrating
Whether Belmar's small-home price-per-square-foot premium reflects renovation/expansion optionality (a value-creation opportunity) rather than only a land-and-location price floor.
Uncalibrated screen — quantifying the opportunity needs construction-cost, permit, and teardown/exit-value ground truth (§3.40 Cycle D). Until then this is an open question, not a published claim.
- Coverage gap
In the available sample, the Older small homes (pre-1980, <1,200 sqft) cohort (n=31) shows a median $823/sqft, but this is not yet a publishable conclusion.
61 town records could not be evaluated for this cohort because a defining field was missing (vs 31 matched); the cohort is materially undercounted and is not publishable as-is.
- Coverage gap
In the available sample, the Renovated small homes cohort (n=1) shows a median $672/sqft, but this is not yet a publishable conclusion.
Only 1 record in the cohort (min 8 for a supportable read); treat as an internal screen only.; 89 town records could not be evaluated for this cohort because a defining field was missing (vs 1 matched); the cohort is materially undercounted and is not publishable as-is.
- Coverage gap
In the available sample, the Optionality candidates (small home, buildable lot) cohort (n=10) shows a median $863/sqft, but this is not yet a publishable conclusion.
54 town records could not be evaluated for this cohort because a defining field was missing (vs 10 matched); the cohort is materially undercounted and is not publishable as-is.; This cohort encodes an optionality/teardown thesis that is not publishable without construction-cost, permit, and exit-value ground truth (Cycle D).
Methodology & limits.
Methodology
- Cohort breakdown bins single-family SOLD comps by living area; medians are reported per band with sample sizes shown.
- Comp universe reads through the shared $/sqft eligibility gate, so nominal-deed and corrupt-square-footage rows are excluded.
- Optionality is a deterministic screen, not underwriting: it observes price and $/sqft spreads across size bands and does not model construction cost, zoning, or any specific renovation.
- All figures are descriptive of recorded sales in the window and are not a forecast or an investment recommendation.
Limitations
- Cohort split by living area only; no control for condition, year built, or micro-location.
- 41 of 211 eligible single-family sales (19%) lack usable square footage and are excluded from the bands.
- No construction-cost, permit, or teardown-outcome substrate is available, so expansion economics are framed as headroom only, not underwriting.
- Headroom is a price-spread observation, not an underwriting of any specific expansion; no construction-cost or permit substrate exists.
- Only 38 of 47 small-cohort sales carry lot size.
- No zoning, setback, FAR, or buildable-envelope data is in the substrate.
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Briarwood Research. Descriptive analysis of recorded public sales data; the medians and spreads shown describe past transactions in the stated window and are not a forecast, an appraisal, or investment advice.